Friday, February 27, 2009

Bank in the future

the presentation of the future of banking.

Of course there is a future in banking … it’s just that no one knows what it is or what it looks like right now.

So here’s my way to clarify it.

First, use Michael Porter’s forces of change, which we use extensively to model the future in one of the other companies I founded: Shaping Tomorrow. Michael Porter’s forces are based upon the key drivers of impact upon a company, which are Political, Economic, Social and Technological or PEST for short**.

What’s the PEST in banking, apart from regulators and politicians (ed: are these today’s pests)?

Reasonably obvious.

Politically, lawmakers are desperately trying to come up with ways and means to get some stability back into the system to restore confidence, control and credibility.

Economically, the seizure in lending and liquidity is driving down economies worldwide. Apart from major concerns related to protectionism and retrenchment, economists are tryig to figure out whether we are facing normality, stagflation, deflation, or something worse (ed: Reformation, Revolution, Armageddon?).

Society meanwhile has completely lost confidence and trust in bankers and policymakers. Therefore, they are postponing spending, with savings levels rising for the first time in years in many of the ‘borrowing’ economies.

Technology continues to develop at a pace meanwhile, with everything completely transparent. Nothing can be hidden anymore. As a result, new models of access to financial services are arising, such as Zopa, Prosper, Wonga, SmartyPig, the new MTFs and clearing systems for trading, the Barter Network, complementary currencies. All of these are discussed extensively in the discussion series around



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